Why is timing perverse?

The existence of negative market timing, even for passive portfolios, poses a relevant puzzle when assessing portfolio management. In this paper, we develop a simple theoretical model so as to explain why such perverse market timing might occur and why those stocks with the lowest beta in upward markets exhibit pronounced negative timing. Our explanation is based on the existence of higher correlations of stocks in down markets than in up markets. We find that changes in beta, which drives timing, has four components; however, just two of these, mean covariance shift and covariances dispersion map, serve to explain the asymmetric behavior across stocks. We find that a high percentage of the negative market timing ability identified for mutual funds in the literature could be explained by this bias.     

Competitiveness, resources, and capabilities: empirical evidence from retail banking

This research aims to identify and measure bank employee perceptions of the determinants of competitiveness in terms of resources, skills, and capabilities within the retail banking sector. All the 40 branches of a leading Portuguese bank—the Caixa Geral de Depósitos—operating in two Portuguese districts were surveyed. Our results show that bank competitiveness differs according to performance evaluation, human resource (HR) planning, the system of incentives, and managerial motivation. They also demonstrate that human capital is a source of success in the business of banks, which relies heavily on stable and enduring relationships with customers. The study also provides recommendations for retail bank managers seeking to refine their HR strategies as a means of improving their competitiveness.     

An Optimal Strategy for Capacity Expansion

A mathematical model is developed for determining the optimal sequence of expansions for a processing industry. The demand for the output is increasing over time at a geometric rate. The economic objective is minimization of the present worth of the total system cost to meet this growing demand. The cost includes the expenditure for development and operation of local plants and the cost of importing products when the supply from these plants is not adequate to meet the demand.

For illustrative purposes the model is applied to find the expansion strategy for the primary aluminum industry in Argentina.     

Generic determinacy of Nash equilibrium in network-formation games

This paper proves the generic determinacy of Nash equilibrium in network-formation games: for a generic assignment of utilities to networks, the set of probability distributions on networks induced by Nash equilibria is finite.     

A quantile regression approach for estimating panel data models using instrumental variables

We introduce a quantile regression approach to panel data models with endogenous variables and individual effects correlated with the independent variables. We find newly developed quantile regression methods can be easily adapted to estimate this class of models efficiently.     

An integrated approach for ex-ante evaluation of public policies for sustainable agriculture at landscape level

An integrated methodological framework for ex-ante evaluation and planning of public policies for sustainable agriculture at agro-landscape level is proposed. The components of the framework are to: (1) determine the private, i.e. farmers’, and public benefits associated to agro-landscapes, consisting of an agricultural land-use system, according to its performance for several market and non-market functions. Market forces determine the market benefits and preferences of society the non-market benefits; (2) explore and select potential sustainable agro-landscapes based on the private and public benefits associated with possible land-use alternatives; (3) define efficient public policy mechanisms for improving social net benefit of agro-landscapes.The framework is illustrated with a case study in a small dairy farming dominated agro-landscape in The Netherlands, with gross margin, landscape quality, nature value and environmental health as the analysed ecosystem functions. Alternative landscapes consisting of hedgerow configurations and grassland management practices were explored, yielding a set of alternatives representing the solution space in terms of change in private and public benefits. Policy mechanisms were defined to move from the current to a desired landscape based on changes in social net benefits. Moreover, the necessity of a modification in the current agri-environmental support was analysed for each landscape. The analysis considered all farmers in the agro-landscape jointly. The results for the case study showed potential prototypes of landscapes and their performance compared to the current landscape. Extension was the most efficient policy mechanism to promote the change to the socially optimum landscape alternative.     

Trade Receivables Policy of Distressed Firms and Its Effect on the Costs of Financial Distress

This paper studies the trade receivables policy of distressed firms as the trade-off between the firm's willingness to gain sales and the firm's need for cash. We find that firms increase trade receivables when they have profitability problems, but reduce trade receivables when they have cash flow problems. We also find that a firm that significantly cuts its trade receivables when in financial distress will experience an additional drop of at least 13% in sales and stock returns over the previously documented 20% average drop for financially troubled firms. Moreover, the performance decline of a firm in financial distress is significantly higher if the firm cuts trade receivables than if it does not.     

An automatic Portmanteau test for serial correlation

This article introduces a data-driven Box–Pierce test for serial correlation. The proposed test is very attractive compared to the existing ones. In particular, implementation of this test is extremely simple for two reasons: first, the researcher does not need to specify the order of the autocorrelation tested, since the test automatically chooses this number; second, its asymptotic null distribution is chi-square with one degree of freedom, so there is no need of using a bootstrap procedure to estimate the critical values. In addition, the test is robust to the presence of conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form. Finally, the proposed test presents higher power in simulations than the existing ones for models commonly employed in empirical finance.     

Book essay on Flemming Hansen and Sverre Riis Christensen (2007), Emotions, advertising and consumer choice

Hansen and Christensen discuss a wide range of current issues regarding the role of emotions in consumer behavior as well as measures of advertising effectiveness. The central theme of the book is the elaboration and application of a new tool to measure the emotional constructions that consumers develop for branded fast moving consumer goods. The authors call this measure NERS, which stands for Net Emotional Response Strength. The book appeals to both intermediate and advanced academic readers due to the comprehensiveness of its literature review and the depth of its theoretical developments. The present essay critically comments the contents of the book and then, based on the context provided by the book, discusses in further detail some salient aspects of the role of emotions in consumer choice that deserve special attention. In particular, it is pointed out how some findings from behavioral decision research could improve the conceptualizations offered by Hansen and Christensen.